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Near the end of August, several weeks into the new school year, Rutherford County Schools (RCS) had 6,763 enrolled students. This is approximately 2.1% lower than the school system's official Allotted Average Daily Membership (ADM).
"These numbers are generally consistent with what we expected based on our long-term enrollment forecasting, which anticipates continued gradual decline over the coming decade," said RCS Superintendent Dr. David Sutton.
School and community leaders agree, however, that RCS students are continuing to achieve academically, and finding success after graduation.
"I think it is important to distinguish the changing size of RCS from the quality of the education our students are receiving," Sutton stated. "We are becoming a smaller school system, but that should not be confused with a school system in decline. In fact, some of the strongest student outcomes in our history are occurring right now."
Graduates from RCS continue to move successfully into more technical and vocational training, as well as small colleges and larger brand-name universities. They are transitioning into a wide range of professional careers in business, law, medicine, and public service.
Overall RCS graduation rates are the highest ever. For the second consecutive year, more than 95% of RCS students graduated within four years. This is higher than the state and regional graduation rates.
"Our level of graduation success remains genuinely rare in North Carolina," Sutton said.
He noted that in the 2007-2008 academic year, the earliest year for which there is available data, the RCS four-year graduation rate was 68.7%.
Recent state education accountability data also shows positive results for RCS. For the first time, in the history of RCS, one half of all of the schools earned a School Performance Grade of A or B. Schools showed positive growth and overall achievement with Rutherford Early College High School (REaCH) as well as Cliffside Elementary earning an overall A.
"This doesn't mean that every result is where we want it to be," Sutton continued. "We have schools and areas of performance that require continued attention, and we are candid about those challenges. But taken together, the larger picture is important. RCS is serving fewer students because Rutherford County is producing fewer school-age children and because those children are now distributed across more educational settings, but not because our schools have somehow ceased to produce strong results. In many important measures, the opposite is true."
For many years, RCS had annual enrollments of around 10,000 students. Current projections indicate RCS will likely have approximately 5,600 students by the 2035-36 school year.
School leaders are now planning for the changes that will come with a lower enrollment.
"We are operating a school system originally built to serve a substantially larger student population," Sutton explained. "The question before us is how to align that physical footprint thoughtfully with the number of students we serve while preserving strong programs, opportunities, and educational experiences for students. That is the purpose of the planning work now underway."
Earlier this year, the Rutherford County Schools Board of Education identified a "two-feeder-pattern" model as the framework for future planning. In other words, RCS will likely transition from having three traditional high schools, three traditional middle schools, and various elementary schools feeding into them; to having only two traditional high schools, two traditional middle schools, and fewer elementary schools.
School leaders are examining how existing facilities can best support the two-feeder-pattern model. The school board selected the consulting company LS3P to conduct a comprehensive analysis and provide a detailed understanding of what is feasible, what changes would be required, what they would cost, and how to make the eventual transition responsibly.
The dramatic change in enrollment numbers did not happen suddenly. Primary factors that led to the decline include collapse of the county's textile-based economy, which school leaders say profoundly disrupted employment and population patterns; effects of the Great Recession; demographic response marked by declining birth rates and a declining number of working-age adults which is producing smaller numbers of students; and the rise of education alternatives including charter schools, private schools, and home schools.
Despite the decline in numbers, RCS remains the top choice for many in Rutherford County.
"RCS is a fantastic choice for families because of the opportunities, relationships, and experiences we provide our students every day," said Ritchie Garland, RCS Education Foundation Executive Director, and Director of Marketing/Community Relations for RCS. "From strong academics and exceptional teachers to career and technical education, advanced learning, athletics, the arts, and hands-on experiences, there is a place for every student to discover what they do well and where they want to go next."
He continued "We recognize that families have choices in education and we respect those choices. Our responsibility is to continue giving families compelling reasons to choose RCS by providing an education where students are known, supported, challenged, and prepared for their future."
"I'm incredibly proud of what our schools offer and of the people who make RCS such a special place for students," Garland added.
